This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nigel Farage ceases to be the Leader of Reform UK for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Nigel Farage’s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be information from Reform UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
24H VOLUME
$274.3K
LIQUIDITY
$274.3K
BALANCE
$0
Comments (24)
conotocaurius Sep 14
bond good
UDK Sep 8
dream on, not at this price
MaxShorter Sep 6
fill me
theta-thunberg Aug 17
yes the UK is famous for 6.5 MPs/year being assassinated
DontTrustMe Aug 11
You are right, this market is not accurately priced. But since a cycle of negative news for him and his party might still be ahead (Burnham honeymoon period, Reform UK dropping in polls, the conclusion of the ongoing investigation, a second by-election potentially required, etc.), some people here will still believe that a resignation could happen. Need to be a little bit patient.
conotocaurius Aug 11
I keep coming back to this prop and I just don't see why it's anywhere near 20c. I would be really keen to hear a solid bull case for this. I guess 1% for assassination, 2-3% for assorted black swans and long-tail events... why is anyone betting on this at more than 5c?
conotocaurius Aug 1
No holder in peace. Biggest reasons I can't see this happening despite Farage's low popularity numbers 1) Reform is structurally set up by Farage, for Farage. There is no formal mechanism for removing him that he can't veto. 2) The alternative leaders are simply ridiculous and not credible. Reform dies if Farage goes, to be replaced by the Tories and Restore.
Jabotinsky Jul 7
Clacton will be even better than makerfield
Newshound Jul 7
Thanks!
pbshine Jul 7
Farage resigns as MP
KimchiCapital Jul 7
damn whoever sniped those shares at 12c when he said resign as MP and someone dumped because they thought that meant reform uk leader GG
HEUREKA1992 Jul 7
Poor boy has won $15.42. Thanks.
theta-thunberg Jul 7
yeah daddy told me he wasn't leaving
HEUREKA1992 Jul 7
Thanks, haven't read your comment properly.
kryptoriley Jul 7
That’s why im
HEUREKA1992 Jul 7
@farage123 is betting NO.
HEUREKA1992 Jul 7
$36,266 Vol. does not speak for big money.
kryptoriley Jul 7
Look out for some big money bets being placed. It’s be well on brand for some insider trading
HEUREKA1992 Jul 7
His party is still selling "platinum" tickets for 3000 pounds for a breakfast with Nigel. Just look at the party's website. Who want's to meet for 3000 quid a resigned party leader? lol
HEUREKA1992 Jul 7
He is too popular and is just playing the troll game. Like every right-wing politician that cares about the people. And may be he is getting some free cash on Polymarket. 😄 Love that move.
Jabotinsky Jul 6
Tice
DontTrustMe Jul 2
Do you think he has a successor in mind if that scenario happens?
kryptoriley Jul 2
Not necessarily about a challenge. He may just quit
DontTrustMe Jun 24
Who could realistically challenge him? 🤔
